The Dunning-Kruger effect
: a cognitive bias causing under-competent individuals to over-estimate their own abilities, while sometimes causing very competent individuals to under-estimate their abilities [god’s autopsy]
"It's a theory that was developed, in 1999, by Dr. David Dunning and Dr. Justin Kruger, two Cornell University psychology professors. Broadly speaking, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is defined as 'a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability to recognize their [own] ineptitude.'"[Huffpost] - David Macaray
"The essence of the Dunning-Kruger effect is that 'ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge.' Studies have shown that the most incompetent individuals are the ones that are most convinced of their competence... An important corollary of this effect is that the most competent people often underestimate their competence. This is a result of how you frame knowledge. The more you know, the more you focus on what you don't know. For instance, people who can name 15 of the 50 state capitals tend to think 'I know 15.' People who know 45 of the 50 state capitals tend to think 'I don't know 5.'" "British philosopher Bertrand Russell put it: 'the trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.'" [Jessica Stillman, MONEYWATCH Jan 4, 2008 CBS News]
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled persons suffer illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their own ineptitude and evaluate their own ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others. The bias was first experimentally observed by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University in 1999. They postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in the unskilled, and external misperception in the skilled: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."[wikipedia]
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